[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 22 09:48:22 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jul             23 Jul             24 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
With no significant spot regions on the disk solar activity is 
expected to remain very low. The solar wind speed remains elevated 
due to a coronal hole, the main geoeffective part of which appears 
to have passed. A small coronal hole somewhat closer to the solar 
equator may result in another short-lived increase in solar wind 
speed 22 Jul after which the solar wind speed should steadily 
decline. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33223122
      Darwin               8   33222112
      Townsville          11   24223231
      Learmonth           13   34233232
      Camden               9   33223121
      Canberra            10   33323122
      Hobart              12   33324222
      Casey(Ant)          10   33232132
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              47   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   0133 4322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Jul     5    Quiet 
24 Jul     3    Quiet 

COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole wind stream kept geomagnetic 
activity at mostly Unsettled levels over the UT day (21 Jul). 
Periods of Minor Storm conditions were observed at high latitudes 
particularly during the night and early morning hours. The most 
significant geoeffective part of the wind stream appears to have 
passed and geomagnetic activity is expected to decline. Mostly 
Quiet-Unsettled conditions expected 22 Jul and Quiet from 23 
Jul. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed at mid to high 
latitudes 21 Jul in response to continuing enhanced geomagnetic 
activity. MUFs remained near predicted monthly values in the 
winter hemisphere and were in general depressed in the summer 
hemisphere. Degraded HF possible in the next 24 hours due to 
continuing unsettled geomagnetic conditions, particularly at 
higher latitudes. Continuing MUF depressions expected in the 
summer hemisphere. Some spread-F possible at higher latitudes 
in the winter hemisphere. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jul     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jul     6    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
23 Jul     2    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
24 Jul     0    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Continuing enhanced geomagnetic activity resulted in 
variable degraded HF conditions in the S.Aus/ NZ/Antarctic regions 
on 21 Jul. Strong sporadic E layers were observed at Vanimo and 
Hobart. MUFs however remained near predicted monthly values as 
the winter ionosphere responded positively to the enhanced 
geomagnetic activity. The ionosphere is expected to become 
depressed over the next 2-3 days as the geomagnetic activity 
subsides and the solar F10.7 flux continues to fall. MUF 
depressions up to 20% are possible. Night time spread-F observed 
in the S.Aus/NZ region is also expected to continue 22 Jul. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    86100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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