[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 20 09:21:47 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jul             21 Jul             22 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours, 
expected to continue with no significant flaring likely in the 
next 24 hours. The solar wind speed is currently very low (<400km/s) 
and the NS component of the interplanetary magnetic field remains 
relatively stable. A recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream 
is expected to arrive some time today (20 Jul) increasing solar 
wind speed and turbulence. The recurrent coronal hole appears 
to be in decline and is significantly smaller and further from 
the solar equator than on previous rotations. On its last rotation 
the solar wind speed reached a maximum of less than 600km/s. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111001
      Darwin               3   22111011
      Townsville           5   22211112
      Learmonth            1   01110001
      Camden               0   01100000
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Hobart               1   01101000
      Casey(Ant)           2   11111110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              15   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1100 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jul    12    Mostly Unsettled with isolated Active periods. 
21 Jul    10    Quiet to unsettled 
22 Jul     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the UT day (19 
Jul). A recurrent coronal hole is expected to arrive some time 
today (20 Jul) causing generally Unsettled conditions with isolated 
Active periods 20 Jul and mostly Quiet-Unsettled conditions 21-22 
July. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to slightly depressed HF conditions were 
observed over the last 24 hours. Degraded HF possible in the 
next 24 hours due to enhanced geomagnetic activity, particularly 
at higher latitudes. Some spread-F likely at higher latitudes 
in the winter hemisphere. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jul     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jul     8    near predicted monthly values 
21 Jul     8    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
22 Jul     4    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: With the exception of the S.Aus/NZ region which showed 
enhanced MUFs overnight, the ionosphere in the Aus region was 
mostly normal to 20% depressed on 19 Jul. Expect mostly normal 
MUFs 20 July, although degraded HF conditions possible due to 
enhanced geomagnetic activity, particularly in the S.Aus/NZ region. 
Some further depressions, up to 20%, are likely 21-22 July. Night 
time spread-F was observed in the S.Aus/NZ region, also expected 
to continue 20 Jul. Sporadic-E was observed at some stations 
in the Aus region during the local day, particularly Darwin and 
Hobart. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    17200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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