[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 15 09:41:32 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at very low levels over
the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed remained close to 400
km/s until around 0700UT and then showed a gradual increase
to 550 km/s by 2300UT. This strengthening of the solar wind
stream may be attributed to the previously anticipated effect
of a recurrent coronal hole. The effect of this coronals hole
solar wind stream seems to have been a bit stronger than the
previous anticipations. This effect may continue to keep the
solar wind stream slightly strenthened on 15 July as well and
then gradually dimish. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained slightly positive
until around 0700UT and then stayed negative between -5 and
-10nT until 1900UT. Bz has been showing fluctuations between
+/- 5nT since then. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next 3 days with some possibility
of isolated C-class activity from region 963 or 964.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 15 22233443
Darwin 11 22233332
Townsville 12 22233333
Learmonth 21 22344453
Camden - --------
Canberra 14 21233443
Hobart 13 11133443
Casey(Ant) 13 12222353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 64 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1100 0113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jul 5 Quiet
17 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity rose upto active levels
on 14 July due to the previously anticipated effect of the
high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decline on
15 July, but some active periods may still be observed,
especially at high latitude stations. The activity is
expected to remain mostly at quiet levels on 16 and 17 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days with some possibility
of degradations at high latitudes on 15 July due to some
possibility of continued slight enhancements in geomagnetic
activity on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with periods
of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 9 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 9 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across Auz/NZ regions for the next three days with the
possibility of night time degradations due to the possible
occurrence of spread F.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 54200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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