[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 16 09:31:50 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: The solar wind speed has declined from around 600 km/s 
early in the day to around 500 km/s at 23 UT. The NS component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field has settled. There is still 
a chance of C class flares over the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
with active levels observed at Learmonth early in the day. 

Estimated Indices 15 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33332111
      Darwin               6   32222111
      Townsville          11   33332222
      Learmonth           13   44332121
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             9   33332011
      Hobart               8   33331011
      Casey(Ant)           8   33232111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart             118   (Major storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             23   2124 4463     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul     8    Quiet to unsettled 
17 Jul     5    Quiet 
18 Jul     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Possible degraded communications at high latitudes today. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Jul    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values observed at Casey with
      depressions to 30% 02-07 UT. Night sporadic E also
      observed at Casey.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Night time spread F observed at all latitudes. Night 
spread F expected to continue and is likely to degrade communications.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 444 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    75600 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list