[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 14 09:42:02 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at very low levels over
the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed decreased from 470
km/s to 420 km/s during the UT day. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close
to the normal value until 1400UT and then stayed slightly
positive (upto approx +4nT) for the rest of the UT day.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated
C-class activity from region 963(S06E01) or 964(N04W30).
There is also some chance of slight strengthening of the
solar wind stream due to the effect of a recurrent coronal
hole on 14 and 15 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 4 12211112
Learmonth 2 11100112
Camden - --------
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 1 11000001
Casey(Ant) 3 12111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2330 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 7 Quiet to unsettled
15 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
16 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly at
quiet to unsettled levels on 14 and 15 July and then decline
to mostly quiet levels on 16 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations for the next three days with
some possibility of degradations at high latitudes on
15 July due to some possibility of slight enhancements
in geomagnetic activity on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted montly values with periods of
minor to mild depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 8 near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 8 near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal across Auz/NZ regions for the next three days
with the possibility of night time degradations due to
the possible occurrence of spread F.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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