[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 13 09:24:32 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jul             14 Jul             15 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Region 963 was quiet over the last 24 hours but remains 
large and magnetically complex with a possibility of producing 
M-class or greater flares. Solar wind speed decreased from 600 
km/s to 500 km/s throughout the UT day with the declining influence 
of a recent coronal hole region. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23312111
      Darwin               4   22211111
      Townsville           7   23212222
      Learmonth            8   -4311112
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             4   22302010
      Hobart               4   22302010
      Casey(Ant)           7   23222211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             23   5554 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jul     6    Quiet 
14 Jul     6    Quiet 
15 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed early 
in the UT day due to the elevated solar wind speed resulting 
from the recent geo-effective coronal hole region. Conditions 
are expected to return to Quiet levels over the next 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair          
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair          
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair          
COMMENT: Spread F formation is degrading winter hemisphere 
communications during local night time hours. Numerous cases 
of short-lived strong sporadic E were observed at low latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jul     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jul    10    near predicted monthly values 
14 Jul    10    near predicted monthly values 
15 Jul    10    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Night time communications are likely to be degraded 
across all mainland Australian and Antarctic regions due to spread 
F formation. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 557 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   177000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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