[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 26 10:41:47 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Feb             27 Feb             28 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              79/19              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels 
over the next several days. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was mostly southward for the last 24 hours, but 
never below -4nT, til the last hour where it dipped to near -10nT. 
The solar wind remained at around 290 km/s for the last 24 hours, 
until the last hour where it has risen to 330 km/s and appears 
to be still rising. These changes are due to the recurrent coronal 
hole reaching its geoffective position. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22212222
      Darwin               3   11101121
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            5   22112221
      Canberra             -   --------
      Casey(Ant)           8   23321222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   1000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Feb    30    Active to minor storm 
27 Feb    20    Unsettled to active 
28 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 

COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole is just reaching geoeffective 
position and is likely to cause unsettled to active geomagnetic 
activity with isolated occurrences of minor storm activity. Unsettle 
to active conditions will most likely prevail over the next several 
days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
27 Feb      Fair           Fair           Fair          
28 Feb      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

COMMENT: Expect HF conditions to become mildly depressed at all 
latitudes as geomagnetic disturbances effects the ionosphere 
late in the UT day. These mild depressions will slowly ease over 
the next several days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Feb    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Feb    11    Mostly near predicted monthly values earily in 
                the UT day. Likely mild depressions to occur 
                later in the UT day, 15-40%. 
27 Feb     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
28 Feb     6    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 23 February 
and is current for interval 26-28 February. Expect mostly normal 
HF conditions to prevail in the Australian region until late 
in the UT day (26 Feb) when geomagnetic storm disturbances effect 
the ionosphere causing mild depressions. Mild depressions will 
slowly ease over the next several days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 284 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    28500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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