[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 25 10:16:40 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb:  76/14

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Feb             26 Feb             27 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              78/17              79/19

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels 
over the next several days. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has fluctuated between +/- 4nT over the last 24 
hours and the solar wind speed remains around 285 km/s. A recurrent 
coronal hole is expected to be geoeffective on 25 February and 
will cause a sudden increase in the solar wind. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221111
      Darwin               3   21111011
      Townsville           6   22221122
      Learmonth            3   21111111
      Camden               3   1-------
      Canberra             -   --------
      Casey(Ant)           7   23321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Feb    28    Active to minor storm 
26 Feb    22    Unsettled to active 
27 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 22 February 
and is current for interval 23-25 February. A recurrent coronal 
hole is likely to increase activity in the geomagnetic field 
to active, with the chance of isolated minor storm levels, on 
25 Feb. Active to unsettled levels are likely to persist for 
26 to 27 Feb. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor   
26 Feb      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor     
27 Feb      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor     

COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions to prevail today (25 Feb), 
however, expect high latitudes to become mildly depressed late 
in the UT day. Tomorrow and 27 Feb mild depressions in MUFs are 
possible at all latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Feb    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Feb    20    Mostly near predicted monthly values.  Possible 
		depressions at high latitudes late in UT day. 
26 Feb     0    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
27 Feb     6    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 23 February 
and is current for interval 26-28 February. Expect HF conditions 
to remain normal most of today (25 Feb) for the Australian region. 
The Antarctic region may experience mild depressions late in 
the UT day. Possible depressions for the Australian region on 
26 Feb and 27 Feb due to expected magnetic storm on 25 Feb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 285 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    31000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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