[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 10 10:24:06 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 76/14 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. A
west-directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery late on the UT
day Feb 08. This event is unlikely to be geoeffective. Solar
activity is expected to remain very low for the next few days.
Recurrence suggests a coronal hole windstream onset on Feb 11.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 23221221
Darwin 4 22210111
Townsville 7 23221221
Learmonth 7 32220222
Camden 4 22220111
Canberra 4 22210111
Casey(Ant) 12 34-32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2322 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 5 Quiet
11 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Feb 18 active
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet at low to mid
latitudes throughout the UT day. At high latitudes conditions
were unsettled with active intervals. Expect similar conditions
days one and two of the forecast period. Later on day two a high
speed coronal hole wind stream onset is anticipated. Expect unsettled
to active conditions day three with the chance of minor storm
periods at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions observed at
all latitudes. Isolated periods of disturbance at low to mid
latitudes due to intense sporadic E. Expect similar conditions
next two days. Periods of disturbance at mid to high latitudes
possible day three due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 20 near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal to enhanced ionospheric conditions observed
Equatorial/N Aus region. Intense sporadic E conditions observed around
local dawn. Periods of disturbance during local day Mid to S Aus regions
due to intense sporadic E conditions. Expect mostly normal ionospheric
support next two days with probability of localised intervals
of disturbance due to sporadic-E conditions. Periods of disturbance
possible S Aus/Antarctic regions day three due to elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 93000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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