[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 11 09:55:01 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Feb             12 Feb             13 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
An east-directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 09/1600UT.
This appears to be a far-side event and is unlikely to be
geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the 
next few days. Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels. 
Recurrence suggests a coronal hole windstream onset on Feb 11. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22111312
      Darwin               3   21010212
      Townsville           7   22211322
      Learmonth            4   21100311
      Camden               4   21111212
      Canberra             3   21100211
      Casey(Ant)          10   33321322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1221 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
12 Feb    18    active 
13 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet at low to mid 
latitudes throughout the UT day. At high latitudes conditions 
were mostly unsettled. Expect similar conditions for the first 
half of day one. Later in the UT day a high speed coronal hole 
windstream onset is anticipated, bringing unsettled to active 
conditions. Chance of minor storm periods at high latitudes next 
two to three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions observed at 
all latitudes. Isolated periods of disturbance at low to mid 
latitudes due to intense sporadic E. Expect similar conditions 
day one. Periods of disturbance at mid to high latitudes possible 
days two and three due to elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Feb     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Feb    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial/ 
N Aus region. Intense sporadic E conditions observed around local 
dawn. Periods of disturbance during local day Mid to S Aus regions 
due to intense sporadic E conditions. Expect mostly normal ionospheric
support day one, with probability of localised intervals of
disturbance due to sporadic-E conditions. Periods of disturbance possible 
S Aus/Antarctic regions days two and three due to elevated geomagnetic
activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    84400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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