[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 9 10:29:58 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Feb             10 Feb             11 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              83/24              83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next few 
days. Recurrence suggests a coronal hole windstream onset on 
Feb 11. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22322321
      Darwin               7   22222311
      Townsville           9   22322322
      Learmonth           10   33322321
      Camden               7   22222311
      Canberra             8   23222311
      Casey(Ant)          14   3-433322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              18   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3233 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Feb     5    Quiet 
10 Feb     5    Quiet 
11 Feb    16    active 
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions observed at low to mid 
latitudes, tending towards generally quiet later in the UT day. 
Isolated active intervals observed at high latitudes. Expect 
quiet to unsettled conditions days one and two. Recurrence suggests 
a coronal hole wind stream onset on day three. Active conditions 
possible at low to mid latitudes with minor storm periods possible 
at high latitudes on day three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions observed at 
all latitudes. Isolated periods of disturbance mainly at mid 
latitudes due to intense sporadic E. Expect similar conditions 
next two days. Periods of disturbance at mid to high latitudes 
possible day three due to elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Feb    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Feb    10    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Feb    10    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal to enhanced ionospheric conditions observed
Equatorial/N Aus region. Periods of disturbance during local day 
Mid to S Aus regions due to intense sporadic E conditions. Expect 
mostly normal ionospheric support next two days with probability of 
localised intervals of disturbance due to sporadic-E conditions. 
Periods of disturbance possible S Aus/Antarctic regions day three 
due to elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list