[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 8 10:20:03 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 83/24 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next few
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 32333232
Darwin 10 32322232
Townsville 12 32333232
Learmonth 14 32333342
Camden 9 22332222
Canberra 11 32332232
Casey(Ant) 22 4-533243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1333 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 5 Quiet
09 Feb 5 Quiet
10 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is at quiet levels and is expected
to remain quiet over the next few days with a chance of unsettled
conditions at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions observed at
all latitudes. Isolated periods of disturbance mainly at mid
latitudes due to intense sporadic E. Expect similar conditions
next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial/
N Aus region. Periods of disturbance during local day Mid to
S Aus/NZ/S Ocean regions due to intense sporadic E conditions.
Expect mostly normal ionospheric support next three days with
probability of localised intervals of disturbance due to sporadic-E
conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 82300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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