[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 21 10:48:53 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 71/6 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds increased unexpectedly during the
past 24 hours from approximately 550-750 km/s. The coronal hole
responsible for the elevated solar wind speeds of the past few
days is broader in extent than initially expected. Solar wind
speeds are expected to continue to decline slowly over the next
few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 13 23323432
Darwin 10 22223422
Townsville 13 23323432
Learmonth 17 -3323532
Camden 12 23323422
Canberra 13 23323432
Hobart 12 23323323
Casey(Ant) 17 3--33433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 62 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2422 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of
isolated active periods and minor storm levels
at high latitudes.
22 Dec 10 Quiet to unsettled
23 Dec 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: An isolated active period was observed across the Australian
region during the past 24 hours with storm levels observed at
high latitudes as the result of a coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected for
the next few days, with isolated active levels possible for 21
December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15-30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15-30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
22 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
23 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 20 December
and is current for interval 21-23 December. Depressions of up
to 30% were observed at times across the Australian region over
the past 24 hours. Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions were also
observed at times across the Australian region over the past
24 hours which may have contributed to degraded HF conditions.
Mild depressions are expected over the next few days due to declining
solar activity, with significant depressions possible at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 624 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 172000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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