[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 20 10:43:14 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Dec             21 Dec             22 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds declined slowly over the past 24 hours 
down to approximately 550 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to continue to decline slowly over the next 24-48 hours. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22322222
      Darwin               6   22222122
      Townsville           8   23222222
      Learmonth           11   23332223
      Camden               7   22322122
      Canberra             7   22322122
      Hobart               7   22322212
      Casey(Ant)          16   4--43223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              71   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   3434 4233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Dec     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels were observed across the Australian 
region over the past 24 hours with some minor storm levels observed 
at high latitudes. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the next 
few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Dec   -25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Dec   -20    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
21 Dec   -20    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
22 Dec   -20    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 19 December 
and is current for interval 20 December only. Depressions of 
up to 30% were observed at times across the Australian region 
over the past 24 hours. Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions were 
also observed at times across the Australian region over the 
past 24 hours which may have contributed to degraded HF conditions. 
Mild depressions are expected over the next few days due to declining 
solar activity, with significant depressions possible at times. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 632 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   203000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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