[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 19 10:52:07 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar region 10978 produced several C-class flares during
the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to decline as region
10978 rotates around the west limb. Solar wind speeds increased
slowly over the past 24 hours up to approximately 700 km/s due
to a coronal hole solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds are expected
to decline slowly over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 16 23344323
Darwin 10 22233223
Townsville 12 23233323
Learmonth 18 33343433
Camden 16 23244333
Canberra 17 23344333
Hobart 16 23344323
Casey(Ant) 17 3--44323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 66 (Active)
Hobart 79 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17 2244 4424
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance
of isolated active periods.
20 Dec 8 Quiet to unsettled
21 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Active periods were observed over the past 24 hours
due to a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Some minor
storm levels were also observed at high latitudes. Mostly unsettled
to quiet levels are expected for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed up to 30% at times during the local day,
otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
20 Dec -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
21 Dec -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 18 December
and is current for interval 19 December only. Mild depressions
were observed at times across the Australian region over the
past 24 hours. Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions were also observed
at times across the Australian region over the past 24 hours
which may have contributed to degraded HF conditions. Mild depressions
are expected over the next few days due to declining solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 576 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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