[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 18 10:51:04 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: There is still the small chance of C-class flare activity
over the next 24 hours from solar region 10978. Solar wind parameters
suggest the Earth is under the influence of a coronal hole solar
wind stream. The associated co-rotating interaction region (CIR)
was observed as a shock in the solar wind paratmeters at approximately
02UT on the 17th December. Solar wind speeds have increased since
the shock and are now approximately 600 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 20 34444332
Darwin 14 33334322
Townsville 18 33443333
Learmonth 25 34455323
Camden 20 34444332
Canberra 23 34445333
Hobart 21 34445322
Casey(Ant) 19 4--44332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of
isolated active periods.
19 Dec 12 Quiet to unsettled
20 Dec 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: A shock in the solar wind associated with a coronal
hole solar wind stream produced a sudden impulse in the geomagnetic
field that was observed across the Australian region at 0253UT
on 17th December. Isolated periods of southward IMF have also
resulted in minor storm periods at high latitudes and some Australian
region stations during 17 December. Mostly quiet to unsettled
levels are expected for 18 December with the chance of isolated
active levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 Dec -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
20 Dec -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions are expected over the next few days
due to declining solar activity and recent elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.15E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 40000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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