[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 22 10:43:35 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds decreased slowly over the past 24
hours down from approximately 700 km/s to 600 km/s. Solar wind
speeds are expected to continue to decline slowly over the next
24-48 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 33232321
Darwin 6 22122222
Townsville 9 22222332
Learmonth 11 32233331
Camden 7 23222221
Canberra 8 23222321
Hobart 10 33232321
Casey(Ant) 16 4--42332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3322 2432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled levels were observed across the Australian
region during the past 24 hours with active to storm levels observed
at high latitudes as the result of a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected
for the next few days, with isolated active and minor storm levels
possible for high latitudes for 22 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Dec -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
23 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
24 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 20 December
and is current for interval 21-23 December. Depressions of up
to 30% were observed at times across the Australian region over
the past 24 hours, otherwise MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values. Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions were also
observed at times across the Australian region over the past
24 hours which may have affected HF propagation conditions. Mild
depressions are expected over the next few days due to very low
levels of solar activity, with significant depressions possible
at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 617 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 202000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list