[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 11 10:53:20 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Dec             12 Dec             13 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day, however 
there were several B-class x-ray flares. Active Region 10978 
has increased slightly in size and magnetic complexity. Expect 
more B-class flares with possible isolated C-class flares over 
the next three days. The solar wind stream has increased from 
350 km/s to 450 km/s over the last 24 hrs due to a coronal hole 
reaching it's geoeffective position on the solar disk. The solar 
wind is expected to increase to just over 600 km/s for the next 
three days. Around 2000- 2100 UT the Bz component of the magnetic 
field dip to -15nT, however, has returned to near neutral presently. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 10 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   12222224
      Darwin              10   22122324
      Townsville          11   12222334
      Learmonth           12   12223334
      Camden               9   12222224
      Canberra             9   12222224
      Hobart               9   12222224
      Casey(Ant)          12   3--32233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
12 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
13 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: A recurring coronal hole region is likely to produce 
unsettled to active conditions in the geomagnetic field over 
the next three days due to a high speed solar wind stream. There 
is also a possible short period of minor storm conditons a high 
latitudes due to a southerly Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field dipping to -15nT between 2000-2200 UT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Dec   -22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Dec   -15    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
12 Dec   -15    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Dec   -15    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed dtrticularly at low 
latitudes during local night. Expect ionospheric support to improve 
slightly due to the recent increase in sunspot activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.07E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    72800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list