[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 10 10:18:52 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. Region
978 continues to grow in size and magnetic complexity. C or M
class X-ray events are likely over the next 48 hours. Solar wind
speed increased from 300 km/s to 380 km/s over the UT day with
a recurrent coronal hole region moving into a geo-effective position.
Solar wind speed is expected to increase to mildly elevated levels
over the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22212221
Darwin 5 22111221
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22212221
Camden 5 12112221
Canberra 4 12102221
Hobart 5 12212221
Casey(Ant) 11 34-32221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: A recurring coronal hole region is likely to produce
Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions for the next 48 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec -15 about 10% below predicted monthly values
11 Dec -15 about 10% below predicted monthly values
12 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant MUF depressions were observed during local
night time hours across Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian
regions. Ionospheric support continues to recover slowly due
to the recent increase in sunspot activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.67E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 289 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 10800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list