[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 12 10:09:38 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec:  93/38

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Dec             13 Dec             14 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day, however 
there were several B-class x-ray flares. Active Region 10978 
has changed little over the last 24 hours. Expect more B-class 
flares with possible isolated C-class flares over the next three 
days. The solar wind stream increased to 650 km/s and then settled 
back down to 550 km/s over the last 24 hrs due to a coronal hole 
reaching it's geoeffective position on the solar disk. The solar 
wind is expected to remain elevated for the 12th and to steadily 
decrease on the 13th. Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was mostly between +/- 5nT for the last 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   33333333
      Darwin              11   32223332
      Townsville          11   3232331-
      Learmonth           18   43334333
      Camden              15   33333333
      Canberra            16   33433333
      Hobart              15   33433332
      Casey(Ant)          22   5--43333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              59   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   0222 2124     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Dec    12    Unsettled 
13 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect unsettled conditions in the magnetic field with 
isolated cases of active levels due to high speed solar wind 
effects. 
A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 0609UT on 11 Dec. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Dec    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Dec     0    near predicted monthly values 
13 Dec     0    near predicted monthly values 
14 Dec     0    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Ionospheric support has improved slightly due to the 
recent increase in sunspot activity. Noted sporadic E in the 
Northern Australian region, particularly during evening hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.25E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    69300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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