[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 26 09:34:25 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Aug             27 Aug             28 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Coronal 
hole wind stream onset occurred around the middle of the UT day. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21123222
      Darwin               6   22122222
      Townsville           9   22233222
      Learmonth           10   22223332
      Camden               6   11133121
      Canberra             5   10123221
      Hobart               7   11133221
      Casey(Ant)           7   22123122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0100 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 
27 Aug    12    Unsettled 
28 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The anticipated coronal hole wind stream onset occurred 
around 12UT. Solar wind speed increased from 300 to 400 km/s 
over the second half of the UT day. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field showed fluctuations of +/-5nT. The 
geomagnetic field was quiet during the first half of the day, 
becoming unsettled in the second half. Expect unsettled 
conditions days one and two with the chance of active periods 
mainly at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Brief depressions observed at low latitudes. Chance 
of disturbed periods mainly at high latitudes days one and two 
in association with elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Aug    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Variable enhancements over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Aug    12    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Aug    12    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Equatorial/N Aus region briefly depressed after local 
dawn. Periods of sporadic-E observed N Aus region mainly local 
morning. Periods of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic 
regions, mostly local night. Variable daytime enhancements observed 
Antarctic region. Chance of disturbances S Aus/Antarctic regions 
days one and two. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 298 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    16000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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