[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 27 09:29:20 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar background X-ray flux remains at very low levels.
Solar wind parameters will remain elevated days one and two under
the influence of a coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 22212333
Darwin 9 22212333
Townsville 10 22322233
Learmonth 13 22323343
Camden 8 21212233
Canberra 9 21212333
Hobart 8 21212323
Casey(Ant) 11 23323223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2112 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 12 Unsettled
28 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated due to a coronal hole
wind stream. There were moderate fluctuations in the Bz component
of the IMF. However this remained mostly neutral to positive,
limiting geomagnetic activity levels to unsettled. Expect continuing
unsettled levels day one, with the chance of isolated active
periods, mainly at high latitudes. Activity should decline during
day two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Chance of disturbed periods mainly at high latitudes
days one and two in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Variable enhancements over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of sporadic-E observed Equatorial/N Aus region
mainly local morning. Periods of spread-F conditions observed
S Aus/Antarctic regions, mostly local night. Variable daytime
enhancements observed Antarctic region. Chance of disturbances
S Aus/Antarctic regions days one and two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 11.4 p/cc Temp: 34200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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