[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 25 09:27:44 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nomimal levels. Region
969 produced a few low-intensity impulsive flare events. A small
equatorial coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective late
on day one of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 12110000
Darwin 2 11011111
Townsville 4 12211121
Learmonth 1 12100000
Camden 0 01000000
Canberra 1 11000001
Hobart 1 1-020000
Casey(Ant) 2 22110000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0001 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
27 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels. A recurrent
coronal hole wind stream is anticipated late on day one. Unsettled
conditions expected days two and three with active periods mainly
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Brief depressions observed at low latitudes. Chance
of disturbed periods mainly at high latitudes days two and three
in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Variable enhancements over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Equatorial/N Aus region briefly depressed after local
dawn. Periods of sporadic-E and spread-F observed N Aus region.
Periods of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions,
mostly local night. Variable daytime enhancements observed Antarctic
region. Expect similar conditions day one. Chance of disturbances
S Aus/Antarctic regions days two and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 43800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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