[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 10 09:34:31 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Aug             11 Aug             12 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 
24 hours. The coronal hole effect further weakened today 
as the solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 470 
km/s to 390 km/s during the UT day today. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed 
minor (upto around +/-2nT) fluctuations on both sides of 
the normal value almost the whole day. Effect of another 
recurrent coronal hole is expected to strengthen the solar 
wind stream from 10 August. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at very low levels for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11221111
      Darwin               4   22111111
      Townsville           5   22221112
      Learmonth            4   11222111
      Camden               2   11120000
      Canberra             2   10120001
      Hobart               4   11222111
      Casey(Ant)           6   13311111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2321 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Aug    18    Mostly unsettled to active. 
11 Aug    15    Mostly unsettled, active periods possible. 
12 Aug     8    Mostly quiet, unsettled periods possible. 
COMMENT: The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from 
a recurrent coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic activity 
to unsettled to active levels on 10 and possibly 11 August. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions 
and depressions in MUFs may be expected on high and some 
mid latitude locations on 10 and possibly 11 August due 
to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity on these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Aug     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Periods of enhancements and depressions recorded with
      minor to significant degradations in HF conditions.
      

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Aug     8    Near predicted monthly values / Depressed by 
                5 to 15%. 
11 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values / Depressed by 
                5 to 10%. 
12 Aug    12    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions 
and depressions in MUFs may be possible at times in the 
Southern Auz/NZ regions on 10 and possibly 11 August due 
to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity on these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 545 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    99600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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