[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 9 09:38:07 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. The coronal hole effect is weakeing as the the
solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 600 km/s
to 480 km/s during the UT day today. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed
minor (upto around +/-3nT) fluctuations on both sides of
the normal value for most part of the UT day today. The
effect of this coronal hole is expected to continue to decline
over the next 24 hours. Effect of another recurrent coronal
hole is then expected to strengthen the solar wind stream
from 10 August. Solar activity is expected to remain at very
low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 23222111
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 6 23222101
Camden 5 23211101
Canberra 5 23311100
Hobart 7 33322100
Casey(Ant) 7 33222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 23 6443 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 10 Quiet to unsettled
10 Aug 18 Mostly unsettled to active.
11 Aug 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
COMMENT: The effect of the currently geoeffective coronal
hole has started to weaken and it is expected to further
weaken over the next 24 hours. Another recurrent coronal
hole effect may raise the geomagnetic activity to unsettled
to active levels on 10 and possibly 11 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be expected on high and some
mid latitude locations on 10 and 11 August due to an
anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Both enhancements and depressions recorded with minor to
significant degradations for prolonged periods.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values / Depressed by
5 to 15%.
11 Aug 11 Near predicted monthly values / Depressed by
5 to 10%.
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be possible at times in the
Southern Aus/NZ regions on 10 and 11 August due to an
anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 651 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 247000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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