[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 8 09:49:47 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. The anticipated coronal hole effect kept the
solar wind stream strengthened. The solar wind speed rose
upto around 700 km/s by 0800 UT and then showed a gradual
decline to around 630 km/s by 2300 UT. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed
minor fluctuations (upto around +/-5nT) on both sides of
the normal value for most part of the UT day today. The
effect of this coronal hole is expected to continue to
decline over the next two days. Effect of another recurrent
coronal hole is then expected to strengthen the solar wind
stream from 10 August. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet to active in
most regions. Isolated majro storm periods observed at some high
latitude locations.
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 15 33433323
Darwin 15 43333323
Townsville 18 43433333
Learmonth 26 43535334
Camden 15 33433323
Canberra 15 33433323
Hobart 17 33434323
Casey(Ant) 17 34323433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 12 (Quiet)
Camden 80 (Active)
Canberra 74 (Active)
Hobart 112 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 1022 1245
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 10 Mostly unsettled, some active periods possible.
09 Aug 6 Quiet to unsettled
10 Aug 14 Mostly unsettled to active.
COMMENT: The anticipated effect of the coronal hole raised
the geomagnetic activity from quiet upto active levels on
most locations on 07 August with some isolated major storm
periods on some high latitude locations. The effect of this
coronal hole is expected to gradually decline over the next
two days. Another recurrent coronal hole effect may raise
the geomagnetic activity to unsettled to active levels on
10 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
10 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be expected on high and some
mid latitude locations on 08 and 10 August due to an
anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Isolated periods of enhancements and depressions
observed with minor to significant degradations
in HF conditions.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 7 Near predicted monthly values / Depressed by
5 to 15%.
09 Aug 9 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 7 Near predicted monthly values / Depressed by
5 to 15%.
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be possible at times in the
Southern Aus/NZ regions on 08 and 10 August due to an
anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 15.5 p/cc Temp: 48800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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