[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 7 09:46:23 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low over the last 24 hours.
Two C-class flares were observed from region 966(S06E34).
The previously anticipated coronal hole effect seems to have
started to eventuate as the solar wind speed gradually increased
from 300 km/s at 0600 UT to 450 km/s by 2300 UT. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained
close to the normal value by 1400 UT and then showed minor to
moderate fluctuations on both sides of the normal value during
the rest of the UT day. The effect of this coronal hole is
expected to keep the solar wind stream strengthened for the
next two days. Solar activity is expected to remain at very
low to low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 11222234
Darwin 8 21222233
Townsville 10 12222324
Learmonth 15 22233344
Camden 8 11222224
Canberra 8 11122224
Hobart 9 11122234
Casey(Ant) 10 12222243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 18 Mostly active.
08 Aug 10 Unsettled to active
09 Aug 6 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The previously anticipated effect of the coronal
hole raised the geomagnetic activity level from quiet upto
active levels on 06 August. This effect is expected to continue
for the next two days with a gradual decline from 08 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be expected on high and some mid
latitude locations for the next two days due to an anticipated
rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by upto 35% with periods of minor to
significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 3 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values /depressed by
5 to 15%.
09 Aug 7 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be possible at times in the Southern
Aus/NZ regions for the next two days due to an anticipated
rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 20800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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