[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 11 09:19:31 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed increased to 580 km/s and wind density rose
to elevated levels at around 13 UT due to a recurring coronal
hole region. At the time of this report (23:30 UT) wind speed
remains elevated at 560 km/s and density has returned to normal
levels. Bz, the north/south component of the IMF, fluctuated
between +/- 10 nT between 13 UT and 16 UT. Wind speed is expected
to return to normal levels over the next 48 hours. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 11224422
Darwin 11 22124422
Townsville 14 22234432
Learmonth 14 11235-32
Camden 7 01223321
Canberra 9 11123422
Hobart 9 11223421
Casey(Ant) 10 32223232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1022 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug 5 Quiet
13 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Active geomagnetic conditions were observed between
13 UT and 16 UT due to a high speed solar wind stream and large
fluctuations in the north/south component of the IMF. Conditions
are expected to return to Quiet levels over the next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 5 near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 5 near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 5 near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 48200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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