[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 4 09:32:20 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has decreased to approximately 440km/s
and is expected to continue to decrease over the next two days
returning to normal levels. However, on 6 August expect a recurrent
coronal hole to reach its geoeffective position and gradually
elevate the solar wind to near 600km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/- 2 nT over
the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 12212211
Darwin 4 22111211
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 5 12222202
Camden 2 02102101
Canberra 3 12201201
Hobart 3 11112210
Casey(Ant) 7 22223-11
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1220 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 4 Quiet
05 Aug 4 Quiet
06 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: On 6 August expect geomagnetic activity to start the
UT day as quiet and to increase to unsettled to active levels
as the high speed wind stream induces geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15-20% during local day.
Depressed by 20-30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Ionograms do not show many traces for local night
however, when present are slightly depressed (10%).
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 9 near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 9 near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 9 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Equatorial and Northern Australian regions showed isolated
cases of sporadic E, mainly during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 585 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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