[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Aug             04 Aug             05 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar wind speed has decreased to approximately 530km/s 
and is expected to continue to decrease over the next several 
days returning to normal levels. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/- 4 nT over 
the last 24 hours with neither the southward or northward 
orientation dominating. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22212221
      Darwin               5   22211211
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            7   22312320
      Camden               3   11202210
      Canberra             4   12202210
      Hobart               5   12212221
      Casey(Ant)           9   333222-1
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              15   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17   3443 2233     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Aug     6    Quiet 
04 Aug     4    Quiet 
05 Aug     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Aug    3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 10-15% during local day.
      Depressed by 10-15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 10-15% during local day. 
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 10-15% during local day.
      Ionograms do not show many traces for local night
      however, when present the show MUFs to be near
      normal.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Aug     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
04 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 591 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   228000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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