[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Aug             03 Aug             04 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar wind speed has increased to approximately 610km/s 
as expected due to small coronal hole and is expected to begin 
to decrease midway through the UT day. The Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/- 6 nT over 
the last 24 hours with neither the southward or northward orientation 
dominating. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Unsettled to active 

Estimated Indices 01 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33333322
      Darwin              12   23333322
      Townsville          14   33433322
      Learmonth           19   4344--23
      Camden              12   32333322
      Canberra            17   33444322
      Hobart              16   32344332
      Casey(Ant)          11   333322-2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              63   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1122 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Aug     6    Quiet 
04 Aug     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Coronal hole effects on the geomagnetic field should 
slowly dissipate during the UT day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Aug    1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 10-15% during local day.
      Depressed by 10-15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 10-15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed 10-20% over the UT day with periods
      showing no trace on the ionograms.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Aug     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
03 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Noted isolated cases of sporadic E in the low latitudes, 
particularly above Nuie and Norfolk Island. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 541 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   167000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"