[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 5 09:10:12 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Aug             06 Aug             07 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar wind speed has decreased to approximately 350km/s 
and is expected to remain at this velocity till late in the UT 
day 6 August, when a recurrent coronal hole is expected to reach 
its geoeffective position, elevating the solar wind to near 600km/s. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated 
between +/- 2 nT over the last 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21110001
      Darwin               3   21111011
      Townsville           4   22211111
      Learmonth            2   22110001
      Camden               0   11000000
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               1   11100100
      Casey(Ant)           4   22111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1220 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Aug     4    Quiet 
06 Aug    12    Unsettled 
07 Aug    20    Active 

COMMENT: On 6 August expect geomagnetic activity to start the 
UT day as quiet and to increase to unsettled to active levels 
later in the UT day as the high speed wind stream induces geomagnetic 
activity. Note, late in the UT day, 7 August, the geomagnetic
should return to quiet to unsettled levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Aug     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 10-15% during local day. 
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Ionograms do not show many traces for local night
      however, when present are near predicted monthly
      values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Aug     9    near predicted monthly values 
06 Aug     9    near predicted monthly values 
07 Aug     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Equatorial and Northern Australian regions showed isolated 
cases of sporadic E, mainly during local night hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 497 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    76900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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