[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 29 09:13:53 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Apr 30 Apr 01 May
Activity Low to very low Low to very low Low to very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Over the next several days expect solar activity to be very low
to low due to the complex magnetic field associated with solar
region 10953 and it size, isolated M-class flares possible. The
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component fluctuated between
-/+7nT over the last 24 hours. The solar wind is presently 640km/s.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A K
Australian Region 22 33454432
Darwin 14 23343332
Townsville 20 34353333
Learmonth 27 34455433
Camden 21 23454432
Canberra 21 23454432
Hobart 22 33454432
Casey(Ant) 20 34344-42
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Camden 126 (Severe storm)
Canberra 91 (Minor storm)
Hobart 82 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 16 3113 2444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Apr 24 active
30 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 26 April and
is current for interval 27-29 April. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be unsettled to minor storm levels today 29 August
due to a high speed wind stream induced by a recurrent coronal
hole. The following several days will be active to quiet
levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed HF condition expected from the mid to high
latitudes over the next several days expected. Mid to low latitudes
should remain at near normal HF conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Apr 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Apr -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect daytime enhancements in the Equatorial and Northern
Australian region due to increase EUV and xrays. T was unexpectively
high most likely due to increased ionization of the ionosphere.
There however, will still be depressed conditions most likely
limited to the Southern and Antarctic regions due to geomagnetic
activity, particularly during local night and dawn.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 78300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list