[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 28 09:52:57 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Apr 29 Apr 30 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
however, region 10953 did produce 5 B-class flares during the
last 24 hours. Over the next 24 hours solar activity is expected
to be low due to the complex magnetic field associated with 10953
and it size. This region will most likely produce C-class flares
and possibly isolated M-class flares. The interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component fluctuated between -10 and +10 nT over the
last 8 hours and the solar wind has risen from 450 to approximately
670 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 22233333
Darwin 9 22222233
Townsville 12 22233333
Learmonth 16 22233335
Camden 11 21133333
Canberra 12 21133343
Hobart 11 21133333
Casey(Ant) 12 23322234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2000 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Apr 30 Active to Minor storm
29 Apr 24 active
30 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 26 April and
is current for interval 27-29 April. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be active to minor storm levels today 28 August due
to a high speed wind stream induced by a recurrent coronal hole.
The following several days will be active to unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
29 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
30 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Depressed HF condition expected from the mid to high
latitudes over the next several days. Mid to low latitudes
should remain at near normal HF conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Apr 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Apr -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Expect daytime enhancements in the Equatorial and Northern
Australian region due to increase EUV and xrays. T was unexpectively
high most likely due to increased ionization of the ionosphere.
There however, will still be depressed conditions most likely
limited to the Southern and Antarctic regions due to geomagnetic
activity, particularly during local night and dawn.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 66300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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