[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 27 09:20:49 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Apr             28 Apr             29 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and 
is expected to remain very low to low over the next few days. 
A new solar region, 10953, has rotated onto the solar disk and 
may produce isolated C-class flares. The interplanetary magnetic 
field Bz component was mostly northward over the last 24 hours 
ranging from -3 to 5 nT. The solar wind is presently is steady 
around 450 km/s. Expect a recurrent coronal hole to reach geoeffective
position late in the UT day on 27 April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22122212
      Darwin               6   22112222
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            8   22113322
      Camden               4   11112211
      Canberra             3   10022211
      Hobart               4   11121211
      Casey(Ant)           8   23321-12
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   3100 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Apr    30    Active to Minor storm 
29 Apr    24    active 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at mostly 
quiet levels until late in the UT day on 27 April, when effects 
of a high speed solar wind stream induced by a recurrent coronal 
hole are expected. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor   
29 Apr      Fair           Fair           Normal-poor   

COMMENT: Possible mild HF depressed conditions between 28-29 
April due to geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Apr    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with periods
      of mild depressions 10-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values for the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Apr     8    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
29 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30% 

COMMENT: Possible mild depressed conditions between 28-30 April 
due to geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    68600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list