[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 30 09:20:52 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Apr             01 May             02 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Over the next several days expect solar activity to be very low 
to low due to the complex magnetic field associated with solar 
region 10953 and it size, isolated C-class flares possible. The 
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component fluctuated between 
-5 and +4, however was predominantly southward over the last 
24 hours. The solar wind is presently 690km/s. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 29 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   23433322
      Darwin              11   23333222
      Townsville          14   23333333
      Learmonth           17   33434323
      Camden              12   23433222
      Canberra            13   23433322
      Hobart              15   23443322
      Casey(Ant)          18   344333-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Camden              96   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              55   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             26   5544 3443     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Apr    12    Unsettled 
01 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 May     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active 
levels today 30 August due to a high speed wind stream induced 
by a recurrent coronal hole. The following several days will 
most like be unsettled to quiet levels. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
01 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Overall HF conditions were near normal, however at high 
latitudes there were isolated periods were no foF2 layer was 
detected via the ionosondes. Over the next several days expect 
mild depressions at mid to high latitudes initialy, followed 
by possible mild depressions at mid to low latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Apr    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Apr    -2    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
01 May     6    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
02 May    10    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Overall HF conditions were near normal, however in the 
antarctic region there were isolated periods were no foF2 layer 
was detected via the ionosondes. Over the next several days expect 
mild depressions in the southern Australian and antarctic regions 
initialy, followed by possible mild depressions in the Australian 
region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 600 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   197000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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