[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 10 09:32:06 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Apr             11 Apr             12 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
With the continuing influence of the near-equatorial coronal 
hole region, solar wind speed increased to a high of around 500 
km/s at 13 UT before declining steadily to 400 km/s at the time 
of this report (23:30UT). Solar wind density returned to normal 
levels. Solar wind speed is expected to remain moderately elevated 
over the next 24 to 48 hours. Solar activity is expected to be 
very low for the next few days with no active sunspot regions 
presently visible on the solar disk. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 09 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   34422011
      Darwin              13   44422111
      Townsville          14   44432121
      Learmonth           17   -5532011
      Camden               8   33421001
      Canberra            10   34421001
      Hobart               8   23422001
      Casey(Ant)          14   35431111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              62   (Active)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0000 0003     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Apr    12    Unsettled 
11 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Active between 2 and 8 UT 
due to the highly elevated solar wind density. Expect geomagnetic 
activity to slowly return to Quiet levels over the next 48 hours. 
A weak (14nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 0442UT on 09 Apr. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Fair           Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions over the last 24 hours were 
significantly enhanced after about 8 UT for all but the lowest 
latitudes. At low latitudes very strong sporadic E was observed 
across all stations throughout the UT day blanketing the entire 
HF band for hours at a time. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Apr    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Apr    10    near predicted monthly values 
11 Apr    10    near predicted monthly values 
12 Apr    10    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric support and MUFS over the last 24 hours 
were significantly enhanced from about 8 UT across all mainland 
Australian regions. In Equatorial/Pacific regions very strong 
sporadic E was observed across all stations throughout the UT 
day blanketing the entire HF band for hours at a time. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09   (very high fluence)  

Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 298 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    17100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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