[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 9 09:36:01 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The density of the solar wind increased steadily throughout the
UT day with the influence of a recurring coronal hole region.
>From around 22 UT a rapid increase in solar wind speed was observed.
At the time of this report (23:30UT) wind speed is at 375 km/s
and solar wind density is highly elevated at 24 p/cc. Solar wind
speed is expected increase over the next 24 hours and remain
elevated for several days. Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next few days with no active sunspot regions presently
visible on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11211212
Darwin 5 21111213
Townsville 7 22212223
Learmonth 6 12221203
Camden 3 11111102
Canberra 2 01110102
Hobart 3 01210202
Casey(Ant) 6 22321211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 3100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 12 Unsettled
10 Apr 16 Unsettled to active
11 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. A geo-effective coronal hole region on the solar
disk is causing elevated solar wind speeds which is likely to
increase geomagnetic activity over the next 72 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions over the last 24 hours were
slightly depressed at low latitudes but otherwise close to normal
for the time of year. Moderate cases of sporadic E degraded
communications at low latitudes throughout local night time hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 8 near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 6 near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 6 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support over the last 24 hours was slightly
depressed across Equatorial/Pacific and Northern Australian regions.
Moderate cases of sporadic E degraded communications across Northern
Australia throughout local night time hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 27000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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