[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 8 09:21:05 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind velocity continued to decrease from 350 km/s to 300 
km/s at the time of this report at 23:30 UT. A recurring coronal 
hole region will move into a geo-effective position in around 
24 hours causing a likely increase in solar wind speed over several 
days. Solar wind speeds of around 600 km/s are likely based on 
previous rotations. Solar activity is expected to be very low 
for the next few days with no active sunspot regions presently 
visible on the solar disk. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111101
      Darwin               2   11011101
      Townsville           5   22122211
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden               1   10001001
      Canberra             0   10001000
      Hobart               1   11011000
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Camden              49   (Unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1211 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr     6    Quiet 
09 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Apr    16    active 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the last 24 
hours. A geo-effective coronal hole region on the solar disk 
is likely to increase geomagnetic activity over the next 48 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were close to normal for the 
time of year over the last 24 hours. Some moderate and strong 
cases of sporadic E were observed at low latitudes during local 
night time hours, particularly just after sunset, partially or 
completely blanketing the HF band. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Apr    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr    10    near predicted monthly values 
09 Apr    10    near predicted monthly values 
10 Apr     8    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was close to normal for the time 
of year over the last 24 hours. Some moderate and strong cases 
of sporadic E were observed across Equatorial/Pacific and Northern 
Australian regions during local night time hours, particularly 
just after sunset, partially or completely blanketing the HF 
band. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09   (very high fluence)  

Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 363 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    27600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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