[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 7 09:15:55 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind velocity continued to decrease from 400 km/s to 355 
km/s by the time of this report at 23:30 UT. A recurring coronal 
hole region will move into a geo-effective position in 36 to 
48 hours. While the region has weakened since last rotation solar 
wind speeds are likely to increase to 500 - 600 km/s for around 
72 hours. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next 
few days with no active sunspot regions presently visible on 
the solar disk. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12211111
      Darwin               4   21211111
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            4   22210---
      Camden               3   11211011
      Canberra             2   01211010
      Hobart               2   01211010
      Casey(Ant)           7   23321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              15   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1121 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr     6    Quiet 
08 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Apr    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
A geo-effective coronal hole region on the solar disk is likely 
to increase geomagnetic activity in 36 to 48 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were close to normal for the 
time of year over the last 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Apr    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr    10    near predicted monthly values 
08 Apr     6    near predicted monthly values 
09 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was close to normal across all
Australasian regions for the time of year over the last 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    61600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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