[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 11 09:37:01 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Apr             12 Apr             13 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
With the influence of the near-equatorial coronal hole region, 
solar wind speed reached a high of around 500 km/s at 17 UT before 
declining to 450 km/s at the time of this report (23:30UT). The 
coronal hole region has now moved beyond a geo-effective position. 
Expect wind speed to return to normal levels over the next 48 
hours. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next 
few days with no active sunspot regions presently visible on 
the solar disk. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22022222
      Darwin               6   22022222
      Townsville           7   22122322
      Learmonth            7   22022322
      Camden               4   11022211
      Canberra             6   11022322
      Hobart               4   11012222
      Casey(Ant)           8   23222222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   4331 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Apr     6    Quiet 
13 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet over the last 
24 hours with an Unsettled period between 11 UT and 20 UT due 
to the elevated solar wind speed. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions over the last 24 hours were 
depressed at lower latitudes and enhanced at mid and high latitudes. 
At lower latitudes strong sporadic E was observed across all 
stations between 10 UT and 15 UT blanketing the entire HF band. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Apr     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Apr     9    near predicted monthly values 
12 Apr     9    near predicted monthly values 
13 Apr     9    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric support and observed MUFS were enhanced 
across Southern Australian regions and depressed across Northern 
Australian and Equatorial/Pacific regions over the last 24 hours. 
At all Northern Australian and Equatorial stations strong sporadic 
E was observed between 10 UT and 15 UT, blanketing the entire 
HF band. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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