[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Sep             18 Sep             19 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              75/13              75/13





-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11010111
      Darwin               4   12111112
      Learmonth            2   11010111
      Culgoora             1   11000110
      Camden               2   11010111
      Canberra             1   11000110
      Hobart               1   11000110
      Casey(Ant)           6   22211222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              3   1000 1022     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Sep     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected over the next few 
days with the small chance of unsettled levels and isolated active 
periods as a small coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective 
position. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions have been observed at all latitudes 
for 16 September. Mostly normal conditions are expected to continue 
at all latitudes for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Sep    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slight depressions were observed at times during local 
day for northern Australian regions, otherwise mostly normal 
conditions have been observed for the Australian/NZ region for 
16 September. Mostly normal conditions are expected for the Aus/NZ 
region for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"