[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Sep             19 Sep             20 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active periods. 

Estimated Indices 17 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22233132
      Darwin               8   21223132
      Learmonth           11   22233142
      Culgoora            11   33133132
      Camden              10   11234132
      Canberra            10   11234132
      Hobart              11   11244132
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-233132
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   0000 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Sep    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance 
                of isolated active periods. 
19 Sep     8    Quiet to unsettled 
20 Sep     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: A sustained period of southward IMF ranging between 
approximately 5 to 10nT, combined with mildly elevated solar 
wind speeds, resulted in an isolated active period for low-mid 
latitudes and a minor storm period for high latitudes during 
17 September. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 
over the next few days. There is the small chance of isolated 
active levels for 18 September. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions have been observed at all latitudes 
for 17 September. Mostly normal conditions are expected to continue 
at all latitudes for the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Sep    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted montly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions have been observed for the 
Aus/NZ region for 17 September. Mostly normal conditions are 
expected for the Aus/NZ region for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    32700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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