[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 16 09:52:16 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have continued to decline slowly during
the past 24 hours down to approximately 320km/s, with the z-component
of the IMF predominantly northward. These solar wind conditions
have resulted in quiet levels of geomagnetic during the past
24 hours. There is still the slight chance that solar wind speeds
may become mildly elevated over the next 24 hours as a small
coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Darwin 2 11100002
Learmonth 1 11100010
Culgoora 0 10000000
Camden 0 10000000
Canberra 0 10100000
Hobart 1 11100000
Casey(Ant) 7 22322212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1322 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 10 Mostly quiet with the small chance of unsettled
levels and isolated active periods.
17 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected over the next few
days with the small chance of unsettled levels and isolated active
periods as a small coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective
position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some slight depressions were observed for equatorial
to low latitudes during local day, otherwise mostly normal conditions
have been observed during the past 24 hours. Mostly normal conditions
are expected over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed up to 15% at times during local day,
otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed up to 15% at times during local day,
otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some slight depressions were observed for northern Australian
regions during local day, otherwise mostly normal conditions
have been observed during the past 24 hours. Mostly normal conditions
are expected over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 46700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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