[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 29 10:45:13 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low
levels today as well. Solar wind speed remained around
320 km/s in the first half of the UT day and then gradually
increased to around 550 km/s by 2300UT. This increase in
the solar wind speed seems to have been caused by the
anticipated effect of the coronal hole. The coronal hole
effect seems to have eventuated later than expected. Periods
of strengthened solar wind stream due to the effect of
this coronal hole can be expected for the next one and a
half to two days. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained slightly to
moderately negative (upto around -5nT) for most part of
the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 22233323
Darwin 11 22233323
Learmonth 12 22233333
Culgoora - --------
Camden 10 12233323
Canberra 11 22233323
Hobart 11 12333323
Casey(Ant) 15 33333333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1001 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 15 Mostly unsettled to active, slight chance of
isolated minor storm periods.
30 Oct 7 Quiet to unsettled
31 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity may rise to active levels
with some possibility of minor storm periods at times on
29 October due to the effect of a high speed solar wind
stream from a geoeffectively located coronal hole. Activity
level is then expected to gradually decline to mostly
unsettled and then quiet levels during the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
31 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Pre-dawn depressions in MUFs on low latitudes may
continue for the next few days. An expected rise in the
geomagnetic activity levels on 29 October may result in
minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in
HF conditions on this day especially on high latitudes.
Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
on these circuits may also be possible on 30 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct -6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Oct -3 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
31 Oct -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The pre-dawn depressions in MUFs on low latitudes,
that are being observed for the last few days, are expected
to continue for the next few days. HF conditions may show
mild to moderate degradations on 29 October especially in
the Southern Aus/NZ regions due to an expected rise in
geomagnetic conditions during this period. Minor degradations
in HF conditions in these regions may also be possible at
times on 30 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 308 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 15700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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