[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 28 09:47:00 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels today
as well. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 360 to
290 km/s by around 1700UT and then showed a gradual increase
to 340 km/s by around 2300UT. This increase in the solar
wind speed may have been caused by the anticipated effect
of the coronal hole that is currently taking a geoeffective
position. The solar wind stream may remain strengthened due
to the effect of this coronal hole for the next 48 hours.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained close to the normal value until around
1700UT and then showed minor to moderate (upto +5 and -7 nT)
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value during the
rest of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 21112123
Darwin 6 22111123
Learmonth 5 21011123
Culgoora 5 11112123
Camden 4 11112013
Canberra 5 11022113
Hobart 3 11112012
Casey(Ant) 9 33311123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0010 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 20 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.
29 Oct 14 Unsettled to active
30 Oct 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 25 October
and is current for interval 26-28 October. Geomagnetic
activity may rise to active to minor storm levels on 28
October due to an expected effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. The activity
level is then expected to gradually subside to unsettled
to active levels on 29 October and quiet to unsettled on
30 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Fair Fair Fair
29 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
30 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Pre-dawn depressions in MUFs may continue for the
next few days. An expected rise in the geomagnetic activity
levels late on 28 October may result in minor to moderate
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions on
this day. Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may also be possible on 29 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct -12 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
29 Oct -7 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Oct -3 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: The pre-dawn depressions in MUFs, that are being
observed for the last few days, are expected to continue
for the next few days. HF conditions may show mild to
moderate degradations on 28 and possibly 29 October due to
an expected rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 48900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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