[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 30 10:42:59 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels. A narrow,
East-directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 28/0642UT.
This was most probably a far-side event. Solar wind speed remains
elevated at ~580 km/s under the influence of a small equatorial
coronal hole. This feature will rotate beyond geoeffective position
over the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 32323233
Darwin 11 32323223
Learmonth 11 32323223
Culgoora - --------
Camden 10 22322233
Canberra 11 33322232
Hobart 13 33333232
Casey(Ant) 16 4-432233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 63 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 1234 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Oct 5 Quiet
01 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions observed
at high latitudes. Mainly unsettled conditions at low to mid
latitudes. Solar wind speed remains elevated at the time of report
issue under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated
+/-5nT over the UT day. Possible active periods at high latitudes
on day one, with mostly unsettled conditions at low to mid latitudes.
Conditions should decline to mainly quiet by days two to three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Continuing HF variability observed at low latitudes.
Conditions have been slightly depressed at mid to high latitudes
due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect similar conditions
day one. Mid to high latitude conditions should improve days
two and three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
31 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
01 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Continuing ionospheric variability observed Equatorial/PNG
regions. Minor depressions observed Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions
due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect continuing variable
conditions Equatorial/N Aus regions. S Aus/Antarctic HF conditions
should improve over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 60000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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