[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 23 09:44:01 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has shown a steady decline but remains
at an elevated level of 540 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF
has stabilised to fluctuate between +/- 4 nT. This is consistent
with the declining influence of a recently geo-effective coronal
hole. Increased solar activity was observed associated with region
917 and is currently at low levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 23312222
Darwin 7 23211---
Learmonth 10 23223232
Culgoora 8 23312222
Camden 8 23312222
Canberra 9 23313222
Hobart 9 23313222
Casey(Ant) 18 44433323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Camden 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15 3233 3432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Oct 6 Quiet
25 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed over
the last 24 hours at all latitudes due to the continued influence
of a high speed solar wind stream. Active geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic regions. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to return to quiet levels over the next several days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
24 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
25 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of depressed HF conditions were observed 0 -
9 UT and 12 - 17 UT at low latitudes and 0 - 12 UT at high latitudes.
Expect conditions to return to normal levels over the next several
days with the decline in geomagnetic activity and the slight
increase in solar activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 30%, 3 to 9 UT and 12 to 17 UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20%, 3 to 9 UT and 12 to 17 UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct -5 Depressions to 20% are likely at all low latitudes.
24 Oct -2 Depressions to 20% are likely at all low latitudes.
25 Oct -2 Depressions to 20% are likely at all low latitudes.
COMMENT: Depressed ionospheric support was observed between 3
and 9 UT and betweeen 12 and 17 UT in the Pacific/Equatorial
and Northern Australian regions. Expect ionospheric conditions
to return to normal over the next 48 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
(no data available at this time)
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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