[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 23 09:44:01 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Oct             24 Oct             25 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar wind speed has shown a steady decline but remains 
at an elevated level of 540 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF 
has stabilised to fluctuate between +/- 4 nT. This is consistent 
with the declining influence of a recently geo-effective coronal 
hole. Increased solar activity was observed associated with region 
917 and is currently at low levels. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23312222
      Darwin               7   23211---
      Learmonth           10   23223232
      Culgoora             8   23312222
      Camden               8   23312222
      Canberra             9   23313222
      Hobart               9   23313222
      Casey(Ant)          18   44433323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           18   (Quiet)
      Camden              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   3233 3432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Oct     6    Quiet 
25 Oct     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed over 
the last 24 hours at all latitudes due to the continued influence 
of a high speed solar wind stream. Active geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic regions. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to return to quiet levels over the next several days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
24 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
25 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Periods of depressed HF conditions were observed 0 - 
9 UT and 12 - 17 UT at low latitudes and 0 - 12 UT at high latitudes. 
Expect conditions to return to normal levels over the next several 
days with the decline in geomagnetic activity and the slight 
increase in solar activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Oct    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 30%, 3 to 9 UT and 12 to 17 UT.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20%, 3 to 9 UT and 12 to 17 UT.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Oct    -5    Depressions to 20% are likely at all low latitudes. 
24 Oct    -2    Depressions to 20% are likely at all low latitudes. 
25 Oct    -2    Depressions to 20% are likely at all low latitudes. 

COMMENT: Depressed ionospheric support was observed between 3 
and 9 UT and betweeen 12 and 17 UT in the Pacific/Equatorial 
and Northern Australian regions. Expect ionospheric conditions 
to return to normal over the next 48 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
(no data available at this time)

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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