[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 22 09:39:33 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar wind speed showed a continued steady increase
from 550 km/s to a high of 680 km/s at 15 UT. Wind speed is currently
600 km/s. Solar wind density has declined over the last 24 hours
and remains steady at 3 p/cc while the Bz component of the IMF
has stabilised to fluctuate between +/- 5 nT. This is consistent
with the declining influence of a recently geo-effective coronal
hole. Solar activity was very low and is expected to remain very
low.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Unsettled to active
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 32333322
Darwin 11 32223422
Learmonth 12 32223432
Culgoora 12 32333322
Camden 12 32333322
Canberra 12 32333322
Hobart 13 32343322
Casey(Ant) 15 4--33-32
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2012 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 12 Unsettled
23 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Unsettled to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours at all latitudes due a to high speed solar
wind stream associated with a geo-effective coronal hole. Active
to Minor Storm levels were observed in the Antarctic regions.
A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1115UT on 21 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Poor-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
23 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions were observed at low latitudes
between 0 and 20 UT and at mid latitudes between 0 and 10 UT.
Further depressions are likely over the next 24 hours while
geomagnetic activity persists.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
23 Oct -8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Oct -6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed ionospheric support was observed between 0
and 20 UT in the Pacific/Equatorial regions and between 0 and
10 UT in Northern and Southern Australian regions. Further depressions
are likely over the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 20.5 p/cc Temp: 74900 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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