[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 21 09:50:58 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Beginning at around 1 UT the solar wind speed has shown
a steady increase from 300 km/s to around 550 km/s at the time
of this report (23:30 UT). Solar wind density has remained high
at around 10 p/cc and the Bz component of the IMF has fluctuated
between +/- 10 nT. This is consistent with a geo-effective Corotating
Interaction Region (CIR) associated with an equatorial positioned
coronal hole. The high speed solar wind stream is expected to
persist for the next 24 hours followed by a decline over a further
24 hour period. Solar activity was very low and is expected to
remain very low.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 14 21334333
Darwin 14 2233343-
Learmonth 18 22334533
Culgoora 15 31334333
Camden 14 21334333
Canberra 14 21334333
Hobart 14 21334333
Casey(Ant) 18 4-433333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0101 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 25 Active. Chance minor storm periods.
22 Oct 12 Unsettled
23 Oct 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 18 October
and is current for interval 20-21 October. Unsettled to Active
geomagnetic conditions were observed over the last 24 hours due
to a high speed solar wind stream associated with a geo-effective
equatorial coronal hole. Expect Active conditions to continue
for the next 24 hours with chances of minor storms.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions were observed at low latitudes
and slightly depressed conditions were observed at mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Depressed HF conditions are expected
to continue at all latitudes for the next 24 hours with continued
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct -8 Depressions to 30% are expected at low latitudes.
Depressions of 10 to 20% are likely at mid and
high latitudes.
22 Oct -6 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed ionospheric support has been observed over
the last 24 hours particularly in the Equatorial and Northern
Australian regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
(no data available at this time)
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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